by Jack Cashill
News Talk 980 KMBZ

Let's accept for a moment the conventional wisdom that George W. Bush will be the Republican Party nominee. Let us move on then to the next step of assessing his likely running mate. These choices, by the way, have been made without consulting anyone of consequence and certainly no one in the Bush camp:

Elizabeth Dole: Too old, too established, too mushy, too yesterday, too married to Bob, can't get Bush any votes that he can't get himself. 10-1.

George Pataki: Bush is currently leading Gore in New York State and Governor Pataki is embroiled in a feud with Rudy Guliani. Best to steer clear of this one. To pick any NE pro-lifer will cause W fits at convention. 15-1.

Christie Todd Whitman: Might as well register for a 3rd Party now. Supports partial-birth abortion, fired her state police chief for being honest on racial issues. Please W, better Slim Whitman than Christie Todd. 20-1.

JC Watts: Good choice but a little too obvious. Plus, JC may not be quite yet ready for prime time and has a checkered past on which the Dems will crucify him. The black conservaative is their worst nightmare. If successful, the party's over: 8-1

James Rogan: House manager proved his mettle under fire. Good looking. Comes from California. Youngish, self-made conservative. Insiders will argue against his association with impeachment, but a good, feisty choice: 8-1.

Colin Powell: Bush will declare him secretary of state at the convention. That will be worth 5% of nation's votes, including, importantly, Jesse Ventura's. 40-1 as VP.

John Kasich: Safest good choice. A natural VP. Youngish, eager, willing to please, blue collar background, knows his way through Congress, conservative enough. Why else is he a candidate for Prez? 4-1.

Alan Keyes: Dangerous choice for W but in many ways the best. W does not need to appease moderates. He is moderate. Implicit in W's moderation to date is that America is not yet ready for serious change, especially on the abortion front. Conservatives will see this as empty talk if he veers leftward in VP pick. How will America ever get ready for change of heart if pro-life forces are shut out of debate? By picking Keyes, W scares the bejesus out of a few soccer moms and sacrifices some instant points in the poll, but he galvanizes conservative base, shuts down all 3rd party talk, and opens eyes of at least a few minorities. He also introduces to the larger public the smartest and most eloquent defender of conservative values in America. Through Keyes, W makes campaign a serious one, one that has the possibility of changing the shape of American electoral politics. W argues that real change can only come when hearts have been opened. If hearts remain shut, even after hearing from Keyes on a regular basis, W reassures America that conservatives will not "force their agenda" on anyone. As constitutionalists, they would and could not.

Bush's advisors will not breathe Keyes' name. That must be left to the rest of us. Right now, 40-1.